empty
24.06.2025 09:25 AM
The Whole World is a Stage, and Countries Are Its Actors... (A Limited Decline in Gold and a Rise in Bitcoin Are Possible)

Iran responded to the U.S. with a strike on an American military base in Qatar, thereby demonstrating its resolve for retaliation and confrontation. Markets reacted in a rather peculiar yet rational manner. Let's try to break it down.

As the poet said, "All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players." If we apply this idea to current global events, we could rephrase it as, "The whole world is a stage, and countries are the actors." Shakespeare's original quote effectively captures the nature of international relations over recent decades, particularly in the actions of U.S. authorities, who seem to operate within the framework of a never-ending performance. The uniqueness of American politics is that the government must continually achieve one "victory" after another. If it fails to do so, it risks being replaced by competitors who operate within the same restrictive environment of conventions, deception, and theatrical gestures.

After the United States—represented by its president—shed its mask of neutrality in the Middle East crisis and openly sided with Israel, it launched an airstrike on nuclear facilities in Iran. Trump reported another "victory" to voters, although there was no substantial evidence of serious damage. In response, Tehran launched a highly unusual missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, which was empty and suffered insignificant damage.

Given all this, one can confidently say that the entire episode was orchestrated. Neither the U.S. nor Iran appears to want a real war, which explains the theatrical nature of both sides' actions.

Considering the modern political landscape, where much is done for appearances, let's examine how the markets responded. And their reaction was painfully predictable. Market participants saw Tehran's retaliatory measures as the lesser of two evils. Iran's earlier threats to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. actions turned out to be hollow.

That's why crude oil prices plunged more than 7% on Monday, and the drop continues today by another 2+ %. Trump's statement on the need for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran only reinforces this bearish trend. Prices have already fallen below levels seen before the conflict began in mid-month.

Investors interpreted current Middle East developments as a precursor to negotiations and a transition to a low-intensity conflict. Israel has effectively run out of momentum for continued large-scale strikes, and Iran's capabilities are also limited. Amid hopes for a ceasefire, the U.S. dollar came under renewed pressure, and gold is showing a clear downward trend, reflecting decreased geopolitical tension.

This geopolitical "drama" has resulted in increased interest in equities. Stock indices around the world have moved higher. Although a potential ceasefire may not lead to any long-term resolution—given the stark differences in national interests—investors are trying to make the most of the opportunity to buy.

What Can Be Expected in the Markets Today?

The Middle East crisis and the potential launch of negotiations will likely remain in the spotlight, which would positively affect demand for stocks and cryptocurrencies. In contrast, the dollar, gold, and crude oil will likely remain under pressure.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast

Gold

Gold prices are declining sharply amid expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East crisis. Given this news, it is highly likely that prices will fall to 3278.50. A potential sell level could be the 3370.42 mark.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is showing notable gains amid easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and a weakening U.S. dollar. After overcoming the 105,746.00 level, it is likely to continue rising toward the upper boundary of the trend at 108,713.40. A potential buy level could be 106,089.25.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Viktor Vasilevsky
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Market fears nothing

The S&P 500 reached another all-time high, with rotation being the hallmark of the US equity market. Investors are aggressively buying up stocks that underperformed in the first half

Marek Petkovich 10:50 2025-07-11 UTC+2

What to Watch for on July 11th? A Fundamental Overview for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Friday, but the volume is still greater than on any previous day this week. The UK will release GDP and industrial production

Paolo Greco 08:50 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 11, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to consolidate above the moving average on Thursday, so the correction continues for now. Throughout Thursday, the GBP/USD pair was unable to hold above

Paolo Greco 07:15 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 11, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair spent Thursday calmly drifting lower. We continue to wait for the current correction to end and for the uptrend to resume. To be fair, this correction

Paolo Greco 07:08 2025-07-11 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are maintaining positive momentum for the second consecutive day. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on the global economy continues to weigh

Irina Yanina 19:24 2025-07-10 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CHF pair retraced part of its decline from a new weekly low recorded during the Asian session and has temporarily paused its downward movement, stopping short

Irina Yanina 12:26 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Market dupes sellers

The split within the Federal Reserve, NVIDIA's successes, and a successful auction of 10-year US Treasury bonds allowed the S&P 500 to ignore the tariff chaos. Donald Trump announced tariffs

Marek Petkovich 12:02 2025-07-10 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 10th: Fundamental Event Overview for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are expected to be significant. So what could traders focus on today? The second

Paolo Greco 09:07 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its downward movement, which is corrective in nature and could end at any moment. The price remained below the moving average line

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 10, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Wednesday. The pair maintained a slight downward bias, as we've noted in all of our recent articles. However, the current

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-07-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.