empty
17.06.2025 12:39 AM
Trump Wants to "Pass the Ball" to Europe

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, it became known that Donald Trump is seriously considering raising trade tariffs for all countries currently engaged in negotiations with the U.S. Trump is frustrated by the slow pace of talks and the weak proposals from partners. He wants negotiations to progress faster and deals finalized as soon as possible—before the three-month period of low tariffs (introduced by the president himself) expires.

However, threatening tariffs and sanctions is one thing—actually implementing them is something else entirely. In fact, ultra-high tariffs have only been in place for very short periods. Trump has demonstrated his readiness for decisive action but has proven unwilling to follow through. According to former U.S. State Department representative for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, Trump does not intend to raise tariffs or impose sanctions. He wanted to show Europe that hesitation is unacceptable and indecisiveness is self-destructive. He made his point. Now the "ball" is in Europe's court—they must hurry with their next trade deal proposal and make it as favorable and convincing as possible.

At the same time, Volker believes that Trump wants Europe to take full responsibility for Ukraine in its military conflict with Russia. The Republican understands that achieving peace will be extremely difficult, yet he has already assumed the role of peacemaker and promised to end the conflict. If this proves impossible, he will need a "scapegoat" and someone else to blame. However, Trump does not want to abandon Ukraine openly. Many voters in the U.S. support aid to Kyiv. But at the same time, Trump does not want to provide assistance for free.

This image is no longer relevant

The situation is quite complex, especially considering Trump's repeated threats to withdraw from NATO. Europe could find itself alone with Ukraine and Russia—a country it expects to face aggression from in the next five years. The threats to cut off support for Ukraine and NATO are another pressure tactic directed at Brussels in trade negotiations. The U.S. leader has started "firing on all fronts," hoping to win on at least one battlefield. He's counting on a victory in trade.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave structure depends entirely on the news background, especially regarding Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The target for wave 3 may reach the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider buying positions targeting around 1.1708, corresponding to 127.2% on the Fibonacci scale, and potentially higher. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but for now, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument remains unchanged. We are dealing with a rising, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, markets may experience many more shocks and reversals that defy wave patterns and all forms of technical analysis. However, at the moment, the active scenario remains valid, and Trump continues to do everything in his power to suppress demand for the U.S. dollar. The target for upward wave 3 is around 1.3708, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale from the assumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, as the market currently shows no intention of reversing the trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and are often subject to change.
  2. If you're unsure about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction is never possible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery, rising toward the 1.3700 level and approaching the weekly high reached earlier. Fundamental factors point to bullish dominance and the potential

Irina Yanina 12:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Markets unfazed by Trump's new tariff threats

Donald Trump's bark is louder than his bite. Markets have grown so accustomed to his rhetoric that the S&P 500 barely flinched at the White House's latest threat to slap

Marek Petkovich 11:53 2025-07-09 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair is holding steady at current levels with a bullish bias but limited movement following the release of inflation data from China—Australia's key trading partner. In June

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-07-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen extended its decline for the third consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a new two-week high above the key 147.00 level during the Asian

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Consumer lending in the US is slowing down

According to data, consumer lending in the U.S. grew at its slowest pace in three months in May amid a decline in outstanding balances on credit cards and other revolving

Jakub Novak 10:43 2025-07-09 UTC+2

The ECB Is in a Good Position

While the euro remains under pressure against the dollar, risking a complete loss of its bullish momentum, one European policymaker believes the European Central Bank should not be overly concerned

Jakub Novak 10:33 2025-07-09 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 9th: Fundamental Events Breakdown for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic publications scheduled for Wednesday. The week began fairly actively, with both currency pairs declining, even though the fundamental backdrop rather points to another decline

Paolo Greco 08:57 2025-07-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 9, 2025

The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, which continues to puzzle observers. As we've repeatedly noted, no instrument in any market can move in the same direction indefinitely

Paolo Greco 08:18 2025-07-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 9, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained a corrective tone throughout Tuesday. There were no macroeconomic events that day, but Donald Trump "listed" all the countries for which tariffs will be raised

Paolo Greco 07:47 2025-07-09 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold remains under pressure; however, several factors are limiting further decline. Expectations that the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will support inflation in the United States

Irina Yanina 19:23 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.