empty
16.06.2025 12:02 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 16, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 100.0% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1574. This did not happen without reason, which we will discuss below. The consolidation below 1.1574 opens the door for a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% — 1.1454. A return above 1.1574 would once again allow for expectations of euro growth toward the 1.1645 and 1.1712 levels.

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly chart, the wave structure remains obvious. The most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the latest upward wave easily surpassed the previous high. Therefore, the trend remains "bullish" for now. Recent news on the increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum forced the bears to retreat again, and the lack of real progress in U.S.–China trade talks is keeping them from launching fresh attacks. The trend would shift to "bearish" only if the pair consolidates below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone.

Friday's news background can be roughly divided into economic and political. Among the economic data, it's not Germany's inflation or Eurozone industrial production that stood out — these did not support the euro — but rather the U.S. consumer sentiment index, which unexpectedly jumped by almost 10 points, far beyond expert expectations. However, bears launched their offensive only Friday night, prompted by Israel's sudden missile strike on Iran, which destroyed several nuclear and military sites. As it turned out, this was not the final attack — Iran responded with strikes on Israel the next day.

Donald Trump also got involved in the conflict, demanding that Iran sign an agreement to cease uranium enrichment and the production of nuclear missiles. According to him, Tehran had two months to sign the deal but refused to meet the U.S. terms. Trump is now pushing for a new agreement with Israel, though the demands remain the same. The new escalation in the Middle East gave short-lived support to the bears. For traders, however, "trade skirmishes" and internal U.S. issues currently hold more weight.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1495. Therefore, the euro's upward movement could continue toward the next level at 1.1680. The upward channel clearly indicates the continuation of the "bullish" trend. A drop below 1.1495 would signal a possible reversal in favor of the U.S. currency and a decline toward the lower boundary of the channel. There are no emerging divergences from any indicator at this time.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,968 Long positions and closed 4,293 Short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish," largely thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 208,000, compared to 115,000 Short positions. The gap (with few exceptions) continues to widen. Thus, demand remains strong for the euro, but not for the dollar. The situation remains unchanged.

For nineteen consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their Short positions and increasing their Long ones. The difference in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is already quite significant, but Trump's political decisions remain the more influential factor for traders, as they may trigger a recession in the U.S. and cause numerous long-term structural problems for the American economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

The June 16 economic calendar contains no noteworthy entries. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment will be negligible on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Selling opportunities were available after the pair closed below the 1.1574 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1454. These positions can still be held open. I would recommend considering buying opportunities either on a rebound from the 1.1454 level or after a close above 1.1574.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

NZD/USD. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

The NZD/USD pair is currently trading above the psychological level of 0.6000; however, it remains vulnerable to further downside amid broad-based U.S. dollar strength. The U.S. Dollar Index is supported

Irina Yanina 12:00 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline, completely ignoring the 127.2% correction level at 1.1712. This level is currently not suitable for identifying trading signals. The euro's decline should

Samir Klishi 11:20 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 9, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell on Tuesday to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the pound. This may signal

Samir Klishi 11:05 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Can 0.7939 withstand the temporary correction of the USD/CHF currency pair, Wednesday, July 9, 2025?

USD/CHF – Wednesday, July 9, 2025. Due to the USD's safe-haven support and global trade risks, although the CHF is quite strong, these conditions still have the potential to cause

Arief Makmur 07:12 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Sellers continue to dominate the NZD/USD commodity currency pair, Wednesday, July 9, 2025.

NZD/USD, Wednesday, July 9, 2025. Global risk sentiment regarding commodity currencies and New Zealand's cautious monetary outlook are putting pressure on the Kiwi's potential today. Key Levels 1. Resistance

Arief Makmur 07:12 2025-07-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro attempted a downward move but failed to reach support at the MACD line, stopping at the target level of 1.1692. The day closed with a white

Laurie Bailey 06:58 2025-07-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025

Yesterday, the British pound tested the area around the daily balance line. This move revealed the weakness of support levels on the path toward the target level of 1.3414, which

Laurie Bailey 06:30 2025-07-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for July 9, 2025

USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair appears to be completing the formation of a triangle. There are several possible scenarios. According to the main scenario, the pair is likely to test the upper

Laurie Bailey 06:25 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for July 8-12, 2025: buy above 1.1650 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so we believe the euro could recover above 1.1680 in the coming hours and then reach 1.1718, where the 8/8 Murray is located

Dimitrios Zappas 18:58 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 8-12, 2025: buy above $3,285 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

If a break below 3,281 occurs, we could expect a bearish acceleration, and gold could reach the 3/8 Murray level at 3,242 and ultimately reach the bottom of the main

Dimitrios Zappas 18:56 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.