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29.05.2025 09:49 AM
Opposition to Trump Within the U.S. Intensifies (Potential for Continued Growth in #SPX and #NDX)
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Domestic opposition to Donald Trump is gaining momentum, which could be an unpleasant surprise for the former president. This development may limit his efforts to reshape the U.S. economic landscape and revert it to its previous industrial path.

Key Developments:

Let's start with the most important event — the U.S. Court of International Trade decision, which ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority when he imposed customs tariffs and effectively initiated trade wars. The court declared the measures "unlawful for all," not just for the five companies that initially filed the lawsuit against the administration. Consequently, it ordered a complete rollback of all tariff-related measures.

This ruling triggered a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting investor concerns over escalating tensions internationally and within the United States. The administration's response — announcing that it will appeal the court's decision — shows that Trump's camp does not intend to back down.

In addition to growing internal conflicts between pro-Trump forces and the so-called "deep state," market attention is also focused on the upcoming Senate debate over Trump's proposed wide-ranging tax and budget package, which appears likely to face major revisions.

Meanwhile, the release of the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes did not bring any surprises. The document reiterated the Fed's extremely cautious stance on interest rate cuts amid increasing risks tied to inflation and unemployment. Policymakers agreed that if economic growth and the labor market remain steady under the current moderately restrictive policy, the Fed will continue to monitor developments and wait for greater clarity before making major decisions.

Market Implications:

The U.S. dollar responded unequivocally with gains in the Forex market, pushing the ICE dollar index slightly above 100 at the time of writing. However, its bullish momentum has since slowed due to partial profit-taking and uncertainty surrounding the legal standoff and Senate tax/budget deliberations. This uncertainty could once again weigh on the dollar.

In contrast, the stock market's reaction to the legal challenge has been positive. Equity markets are eager to return to pre-tariff conditions, so any news signaling the rollback of Trump-era tariffs boosts demand for stocks. Futures on major U.S. stock indices and a strong opening in European trading support this outlook.

What to Expect Today:

Stock markets may see notable support today. While the dollar may experience a short-term pullback after yesterday's strong rally, its upward trend could soon resume. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market appears likely to remain in a sideways consolidation phase, closely watching how the standoff between Trump and his domestic opponents unfolds.

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This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is trading higher amid the legal confrontation between the U.S. Court of International Trade and the Trump administration. Any delay or cancellation of tariffs supports equity demand. This could drive the contract up toward 6045.00, with 5983.54 as a potential entry point for buying.

#NDX

The CFD on NASDAQ 100 futures is also gaining amid the court challenge to Trump's tariffs. A stall or repeal of trade protectionism will support stock demand, potentially pushing the contract toward 22198.00, with 21767.50 as a possible buy trigger level.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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Wave analysis
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