Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The price test at 144.59 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.
Yesterday's release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the apparent takeaways led to a strengthening of the dollar and a further weakening of the yen. The Fed's stance remained unchanged, with many policymakers preferring to wait for the economy's response to Trump's new trade tariffs before considering rate cuts. The market reacted accordingly, and the yen — traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset — came under pressure from the strengthening dollar and the absence of expected stimulus from the Fed. Investors, disappointed by the lack of immediate rate-cut prospects, rebalanced their portfolios in favor of higher-risk dollar-denominated assets. Still, maintaining interest rates doesn't rule out future monetary easing. Fed policymakers emphasized their readiness to act should economic data indicate the need. However, their cautious approach in waiting to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs contributes to increased financial market volatility.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenario
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 146.09 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 146.86 (thicker green line). Around 146.86, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip retracement from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and deeper dips in USD/JPY.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 145.64 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 146.09 and 146.86 can be expected.
Sell Scenario
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below the 145.64 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 144.90 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip retracement from that level). However, pressure on the pair is unlikely to persist today.
Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.09 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 145.64 and 144.90 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
