Forex Analysis & Reviews: 28.05.2025 - Navigating dollar surge and...

28.05.2025 11:44 AM

Navigating dollar surge and tech turmoil: key entry points for traders

Volatility has returned to financial markets. The dollar staged a sharp rally, driving down the yen, euro, and Swiss franc, but beneath the surface lies a web of unsettling signals. Apple shares continue to fall under the weight of tariff threats. Tesla is losing ground in Europe, prompting Elon Musk to rush back into control. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is betting $1 billion on a future without opioids or pain. This article offers four trading ideas for those looking to profit from the shifting landscape.

Dollar rallies: short-term triumph or calm before the storm?

On Tuesday, the dollar gained solid ground against a basket of major currencies. The move was particularly pronounced against the yen, but the euro and franc also saw sharp pullbacks. Behind this rally lies a far more complex picture—from local macro signals to systemic concerns like rising US debt, growing protectionism, and a worrying erosion of investor confidence. This article breaks down the drivers of the dollar's current spike, assesses the sustainability of the move, and, most importantly, outlines how traders can capitalize on FX market volatility.

The US dollar returned to the center of market attention on Tuesday, surging against several key currencies. The USD/JPY pair led the move, jumping more than 1% to 144.28.

The immediate catalyst for this sharp move was concern over a potential cut in Japan's issuance of ultra-long bonds. With high yields and waning demand from traditional buyers like insurers and pension funds, Japan's Ministry of Finance is reportedly considering adjustments to its debt strategy. This triggered a localized flight from the yen, enhancing the dollar's appeal as a more stable, higher-yielding asset.

Further support for the greenback came from stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence data, which fueled short-term demand for the dollar among tactical investors.

Meanwhile, the euro slipped 0.46% to 1.1335, coming under pressure from weaker-than-expected inflation data out of France. The figure fell to its lowest level since December 2020, weighing on the euro just as political uncertainty across the eurozone remains elevated. Even Donald Trump's announcement that 50% tariffs on European imports would not be implemented failed to shift the trend—markets are betting on fundamentals, not headlines.

A similar story unfolded with the Swiss franc: the dollar climbed 0.77% to 0.827 after Swiss National Bank Vice President Martin Schlegel acknowledged the possibility of inflation temporarily dipping into negative territory. His calm response to potential deflation was interpreted as a sign that accommodative monetary policy would remain in place, making the dollar even more appealing to conservative investors.

Still, for all its apparent strength, the dollar's rally is not a guarantee, it's a temporary effect driven by weakness elsewhere. Structural issues remain unresolved. The US federal budget deficit continues to widen, and the proposed spending and tax legislation moving through Congress could add trillions to the national debt.

Even moderately optimistic analysts concede that the current measures are insufficient to put the United States on a sustainable fiscal path. Meanwhile, the US is shifting further toward aggressive protectionism, raising risks not only for global trade but also for the long-term stability of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

All this means that traders must act strategically. In the short term, the momentum favors long positions in the dollar against the yen and the franc, particularly if Japanese yields remain under pressure and the SNB maintains its dovish tone.

As for the euro, a wait-and-see approach is more prudent: weak inflation could continue to weigh on the currency, but a strong political signal from the EU or a surprise shift in economic data could change the outlook.

Over the medium term, it makes sense to look for opportunities to lock in profits and reassess positioning, especially given the likelihood of renewed dollar weakness amid fiscal and debt-related concerns.

Apple under pressure: tariff threats fuel sell-off

Apple is once again in the political crosshairs. Shares are sliding, investors are anxious, and the market is left wondering: will Trump's trade rhetoric morph into a real threat, or will it end with yet another headline that fades without consequence? This article explores how Apple is balancing profits and geopolitics, what analysts expect, why the situation may drag on, and how traders could capitalize on this turmoil.

Apple shares ended last week down 3%, extending their losing streak to eight consecutive sessions, the longest since January 2022. Since the beginning of 2025, the tech giant's stock has plunged 22%, making it the worst performer among the Magnificent Seven stocks.

The primary driver behind the downward move is renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump's administration. Last week, the US president declared that if Apple does not relocate iPhone production to the United States, the company will face a 25% import duty on its devices.

The market reacted swiftly. Although Friday's pullback was relatively mild, the sense of unease has not lifted. Apple's volatility index (Apple VIX) surged 30% over the week, and the stock broke through key technical support levels, while still remaining above oversold territory, suggesting that more downside potential remains.

While some analysts doubt the proposed tariffs will actually be implemented, the mere discussion of such a scenario is already weighing on the market. As market strategist Haris Khursheed notes, even if the tariffs remain rhetorical, the uncertainty alone is enough to erode investor confidence. Markets do not react well to ambiguity, especially when it stems from the White House.

Apple has found itself in a classic no-win scenario. Either the company absorbs the impact of tariffs at the expense of profits, or it passes the costs on to consumers, risking a significant drop in demand, especially amid slowing growth, lackluster product launches, and weak progress in artificial intelligence. Its room to maneuver is narrowing fast, and any strategic shift risks amplifying vulnerabilities elsewhere.

The "just move production" narrative sounds simple, but in reality, Bloomberg estimates that assembling iPhones in the US would raise production costs by over 90%, pushing the device's final price north of $3,500. Wedbush analysts call the notion a "fairy tale," while Wells Fargo estimates Apple would need to raise prices by $250–300 per device just to maintain current profitability. Citigroup sees potential gross margin compression of 130 basis points, while Bloomberg Intelligence projects a hit of 300-350 basis points. And that's assuming the entire supply chain relocates smoothly, which, of course, is unlikely.

Notably, Trump has not limited his threats to Apple alone, he has also proposed a 25% tariff on all smartphones manufactured outside the US. Paradoxically, this could give Apple a temporary edge: with tighter supply chain control and stronger bargaining power with suppliers, the company may adapt faster than competitors. Still, even in this scenario, Apple is likely to suffer significant losses in profit, margins, and investor confidence.

For traders, the situation presents several decision points. The sharp decline in Apple shares amid ongoing uncertainty is drawing heightened attention, with market participants weighing both speculative rebound trades and more cautious portfolio rebalancing.

Escalating geopolitical risk and falling earnings forecasts are forcing a reassessment of exposure, both in the near term and in longer strategic horizons. What matters most now is not the headlines, but actual policy actions, valuation revisions, and Apple's own response. All of these will dictate the stock's trajectory in the coming weeks.

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Tesla loses Europe, but Musk vows comeback

Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted by 49% in April compared to the same period last year despite a strong 27.8% surge in demand for electric vehicles across the region. Against this backdrop, Elon Musk's effort to revive interest in the Model Y resembles more a cosmetic fix on a sinking ship than a strategic turnaround. In this article, we will explore why Tesla is losing ground in Europe, which rivals are gaining momentum, and what it all means for traders closely watching the auto industry and the future of electrification.

Let's start with the broader picture. In April, the total number of new vehicle registrations in the European Union, the UK, and EFTA countries amounted to 1.07 million units, down 0.3% from a year earlier. That decline followed a 2.8% increase in March. However, the overall picture is not entirely bleak: while traditional car sales are stalling, the electrified segment is charging ahead.

EVs, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids now account for 59.2% of all passenger car registrations in the EU, up from 47.7% a year ago. Registrations of fully electric vehicles (BEVs) jumped 26.4%, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) rose by 7.8%, and standard hybrids (HEVs) climbed 20.8%. In short, more and more Europeans are opting for electrified vehicles, just not Teslas.

Sales of the American EV giant have been in decline for four consecutive months. The company's market share in Europe has shrunk from 1.3% to a meager 0.7%. The drop was especially sharp in April: Tesla sales plunged by 49% year-over-year, even as demand for electric vehicles surged by nearly 28%. In other words, the market is climbing, and Tesla is falling fast.

There are several reasons behind Tesla's sharp decline from the obvious, like the uninspiring facelift of the Model Y, to the more nuanced, such as European public irritation over Elon Musk's political antics. As a result, the brand is losing its appeal, ceding ground to both local automakers and rapidly advancing Chinese rivals.

Yet just as it seemed Tesla had definitively lost its footing in Europe, Elon Musk reminded the market that he did not made his final move. On Tuesday, he declared his intent to "super focus" on his companies — Tesla, X, and xAI — vowing to return to full engagement and take personal charge of critical areas.

The market took this as a signal: Tesla shares instantly jumped nearly 5%, showing just how much investors are hoping for Musk's return as an operational leader rather than a media personality.

Of course, a single social media post will not reverse declining sales or repair reputational damage, but it can shift short-term expectations and, at the very least, slow the negative momentum.

For traders, this marks a key inflection point: if Musk truly follows through and begins steering the business hands-on again, it could spark a turnaround, first in sentiment, then in performance. If not, Tesla's shrinking market share, especially in Europe, will continue to weigh on the stock and strengthen the case for short positions.

The smart move now is to watch for concrete actions, not just words. If the promised "super focus" leads to improved results in the coming quarters, particularly in key markets, Tesla shares could bounce back. But if setbacks persist, especially amid rising competition, it may be time to reassess positions.

Lilly bets $1 billion on pain relief: pharma giant enters the non-opioid arena

Eli Lilly is making a strategic push into the high-potential segment of chronic pain treatment without opioids, announcing a planned deal worth up to $1 billion. The pharmaceutical heavyweight aims to strengthen its position in neurology by acquiring SiteOne Therapeutics, a private biotech company. Here is a look at why Lilly wants this asset and what opportunities it may open for traders.

The US-based pharma giant has unveiled plans to acquire SiteOne Therapeutics, whose lead asset is STC-004, a Nav1.8 inhibitor poised to enter Phase 2 clinical trials.

This drug candidate is designed to deliver effective pain relief without the risk of addiction, a critical goal given the reputational and financial toxicity surrounding the opioid market.

Under the agreement, Lilly will pay both an upfront sum and milestone-based payments linked to regulatory and commercial achievements. The total deal value could reach $1 billion, making it one of the company's largest neuroscience investments to date. The transaction will be reflected in Lilly's future financial guidance and accounted for under GAAP standards.

Mark Mintun, Lilly's VP of Neuroscience Research, stated that the company is intentionally ramping up its focus on next-generation pain therapies, and STC-004 aligns perfectly with this strategic direction.

SiteOne CEO John Mulcahy noted that his team has spent over a decade developing safe, non-opioid pain solutions, and believes Lilly has the capabilities to carry the project through to final stages. Though SiteOne has yet to bring a product to market, its Nav1.8-focused platform has long drawn interest from major pharmaceutical players.

Amid the fight against opioid addiction in the US and rising demand for alternative pain relief, the deal looks both timely and strategic. The acquisition is especially relevant given the sheer size of the pain relief market, one of the largest in the pharmaceutical sector—and its notable lack of technological innovation.

For Eli Lilly, this is also a step toward diversifying a portfolio historically centered around diabetes and oncology. With competition intensifying in central nervous system (CNS) therapeutics, a strategic expansion into non-opioid pain medications could become a new engine of growth.

Following the announcement, Lilly's stock rose by nearly 1%, a measured but positive market reaction, especially given that STC-004 is still in its early stages and commercial use is far off. Nonetheless, this is already a significant signal for traders: Lilly is not just maintaining its research momentum. It is making bold investments in sectors with high future demand.

If STC-004 meets even part of its expectations, Lilly could secure a leading position in an entirely new class of medications. That opens the door for medium-term stock appreciation, particularly in response to positive updates from clinical trials. For those watching the pharma sector, it is a good time to place Lilly stock in the spotlight as part of a strategy for a resilient and forward-looking portfolio.

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