empty
26.05.2025 02:59 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 26th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1416 level as a key area for making trading decisions. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. After a rise and a false breakout near 1.1416, an entry point for selling the euro emerged, resulting in a 25-point drop. The technical outlook remained unchanged for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro quickly gave up its gains, which had been driven by Trump's announcement of an extension to the pause on additional tariffs against the EU. Apparently, traders are skeptical that a deal will be reached, suspecting that the EU is simply stalling.

Unfortunately, no economic data is scheduled for the second half of the day, so high volatility is unlikely. If the euro declines, focus will shift to defending the 1.1374 support level, which was not properly tested earlier in the day. A false breakout would be a reason to buy EUR/USD with the expectation of a rebound and a return to 1.1416.

A breakout and retest of this range would confirm the entry point, with a target at 1.1453. The furthest upward target would be 1.1490, where I plan to lock in profits. If EUR/USD falls and there's no buying interest around 1.1374, the pressure on the pair will increase, potentially dragging it down to 1.1334. Only after a false breakout at this level will I consider buying the euro. Otherwise, I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.1300, aiming for a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers reappeared and prevented a continuation of the bullish trend seen during the Asian session. If the euro rises in the second half of the day, bears will once again need to prove themselves at the 1.1416 level. A false breakout there, similar to the morning setup, would be a signal to enter short positions targeting 1.1374. A break and consolidation below this area would be a suitable sell signal targeting 1.1334, where the moving averages currently support the bulls.

The furthest target will be 1.1300, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD continues to rise in the second half of the day and bears remain passive at 1.1416 (which is unlikely), buyers could push the pair higher toward 1.1453. I will only sell there if the pair fails to consolidate above that level. Otherwise, I plan to open shorts on a rebound from 1.1490, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

This image is no longer relevant

COT (Commitment of Traders) Report – April 29:

The latest report showed a rise in long positions and a decline in short positions. While the ECB's ongoing rate-cutting path remains a limiting factor for euro bulls, the upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged—supporting the U.S. dollar. Long non-commercial positions rose by 183, to 196,388. Short non-commercial positions dropped by 10,586, to 120,591. As a result, the net long position increased by 9,285.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is occurring above the 30- and 50-period MAs, indicating continued euro strength.Note: The moving average settings are based on the H1 (hourly) chart and may differ from daily chart (D1) interpretations.

Bollinger Bands: If the pair declines, the lower band near 1.1334 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths price fluctuations to identify trend direction.
    • 50-period MA (yellow)
    • 30-period MA (green)
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
    • Fast EMA – period 12
    • Slow EMA – period 26
    • Signal line (SMA) – period 9
  • Bollinger Bands: Volatility indicator (period – 20)
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators like retail traders, hedge funds, and institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between long and short positions.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Neutral
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on June 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher throughout Monday. However, the overall technical picture of the British pound differs slightly from that

Paolo Greco 06:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on June 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Monday. We had warned that the dollar would likely decline again after Trump announced increased

Paolo Greco 06:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 3: Trump and ISM Hammer the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair showed fairly strong upward movement on Monday. Just as expected, the U.S. dollar started falling right from the market's opening on Monday night. What else could

Paolo Greco 03:57 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 3: The Pound Seized Another

As we had warned, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded strongly on Monday. The U.S. dollar got off lightly, as the fall could have been much sharper. Traders witnessed

Paolo Greco 03:57 2025-06-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3555 level and planned to base market entry decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:50 2025-06-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1416 level and planned to base market entry decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:47 2025-06-02 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on June 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded quite calmly throughout Friday. There were no important news or events that day, so the volatility

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-06-02 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on June 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Friday than on Thursday. This is not surprising, as the macroeconomic background was weak

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 2: The Pound Was Just Preparing for a Correction

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair tried again to resume its mild downward movement, as the price had previously exited the ascending channel. Thus, from a technical point of view

Paolo Greco 03:55 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 2: A New Storm is Near...

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Friday, with no news of market-moving scale. In recent months, traders have paid little attention to routine macroeconomic data. Almost every week

Paolo Greco 03:55 2025-06-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.