Forex Analysis & Reviews: 05.05.2025 - The Euro: Weekly Preview

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05.05.2025 12:51 AM

The Euro: Weekly Preview

For several weeks, the euro has remained in a sideways range. It seems like every analyst has already pointed this out and noted that without news from Trump, there's no movement in the market—quite literally. Economic data (as always) has been abundant. Last week, the United States released a significant amount of important data. The U.S. dollar slightly appreciated by the week's end, but I expected a different market reaction. It's clear that the news background matters to the market only when it concerns the trade war or other major and unexpected decisions by Donald Trump. It is uncertain how much longer the market will continue to wait. The fact that demand for the U.S. dollar has increased slightly recently does not seem particularly important to me. The wave layout of the EUR/USD instrument still indicates an upward trend segment, but even that is not of primary importance—Trump can easily disrupt it.

In the Eurozone, we will see reports on services sector activity, retail sales, and Germany's industrial production—and that's it. Even setting aside the fact that the market is ignoring economic data, the most interesting developments will come from the UK and the U.S., where central bank meetings are scheduled. Let me remind you that at the last European Central Bank meeting, it was decided to cut interest rates. The deposit rate is now practically at a neutral level. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has remained silent and hasn't carried out a single round of easing in 2025. This fact, however, plays no role in the market right now—otherwise, demand for the U.S. dollar would be growing. I believe the upcoming economic data from the Eurozone will have no significant impact on the market.

Wave structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair is continuing to build a new bullish wave segment. Soon, the wave count will depend entirely on the stance and actions of the U.S. President. This must always be kept in mind. From a purely wave-based perspective, I had expected a three-wave correction within wave 2. However, wave 2 has already ended in a single-wave form. Wave 3 of the upward trend has begun, and its targets could extend to the 1.25 area. Reaching these levels will depend entirely on Trump. A corrective wave may form at the moment, but growth is expected to resume once it is complete.

Wave structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may experience numerous shocks and reversals that defy wave theory and any other form of technical analysis. The presumed wave 2 has been completed, as the price has moved beyond the peak of wave 1. Therefore, we should expect the formation of bullish wave 3, with short-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. It would be helpful to see a corrective wave 2 within wave 3, but the dollar would need to strengthen. And for that to happen, someone would have to start buying it.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often require revisions.
If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
Absolute certainty in market direction does not and cannot exist. Always remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.