empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
02.05.2025 09:24 AM
The Market Enters Turbulent Waters
Open trading account Open demo account

The market is confident that tariffs won't materialize or that companies can pass them on to customers. The S&P 500's eight-day rally—its longest since August—strongly hints at this. So does the deeper decline in the price-to-earnings ratio compared to the price-to-sales ratio. Issuers have delivered strong financial results and intend to continue doing so despite import tariffs. But isn't there a bit too much optimism in the market?

Dynamics of Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-Sales Ratios

This image is no longer relevant

Strong corporate earnings from giants like Microsoft and Meta Platforms fueled the S&P 500 rally. Moreover, China has finally expressed readiness to negotiate with the U.S. However, let's not be misled. Beijing plans to fight and sees dialogue as possible only on one condition: if Washington lifts the draconian 145% tariffs it imposed. The U.S. has no intention of doing so—access to the "big beautiful store," as Donald Trump calls the American market, comes at a price.

Equity investors seem to have forgotten about the risk of recession despite recent macroeconomic data pointing to a looming downturn in the U.S. economy. This includes the labor market, where job openings, ADP private employment, and jobless claims data have disappointed and raised red flags—as has business activity. Its decline in the manufacturing sector is especially alarming. During past recessions, the PMI fell to 40 and below.

U.S. Business Activity Trends

This image is no longer relevant

S&P 500 bulls have another reason to worry: seasonality. The century-old tradition of "sell in May and go away" is again in play. According to Bespoke Investment Group, from 1993, the S&P 500 returned 171% from May to October versus 731% from November to April.

The stock market is entering turbulent waters. There is no clear sign of de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade conflict, a cooling U.S. economy is becoming more evident, and tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve could flare up at any moment. Following Donald Trump, even the Treasury Secretary is now giving advice to Jerome Powell. Scott Bessent has called the Fed's attention to the bond market, which is signaling the need for at least three rate cuts in 2025.

This image is no longer relevant

The S&P 500 has long ignored macroeconomic data, preferring to listen to White House officials—but that can't last forever. Weak April nonfarm payrolls data could trigger a wave of selling in the U.S. stock market.

On the daily chart of the broad stock index, the resistance level at 5625 held up well. Those holding longs from 5400 could take profits or hedge their positions. Increasing short positions makes sense if the S&P 500 falls below 5515 and 5435.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 4th (U.S. Session) Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 144.01 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving
Jakub Novak
14:30 2025-06-04 +02:00
1555
Forecast
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 4th (U.S. Session) Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound The price test at 1.3526 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving
Jakub Novak
14:27 2025-06-04 +02:00
2005
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Is This the Right Time for Christine Lagarde to Leave Her Post?

While the euro shows no intention of yielding to the U.S. dollar, Christine Lagarde is about to face criticism over her intention to continue leading the European Central Bank
Jakub Novak 13:35 2025-06-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair remains in a sideways consolidation near its lowest levels since October 2024. Market participants are awaiting the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which will be announced
Irina Yanina 09:57 2025-06-04 UTC+2

The Stock Market Believes Trump's Tariff Game Won't Have a Major Impact (Growth in #NDX and #SPX CFDs May Continue)

After a sharp, almost catastrophic drop in March and April, the major U.S. stock indices recovered in May, fully offsetting the decline. Confidence is growing among market participants that this
Pati Gani 09:53 2025-06-04 UTC+2

The Market Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Is the market only hearing what it wants to hear? Or is it simply playing the "buy the dip" game? According to Nomura, buying the S&P 500 five days after
Marek Petkovich 09:27 2025-06-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are not many macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday. Of course, we should note the services sector business activity indices for Germany, the UK, the EU, and the US. However
Paolo Greco 07:27 2025-06-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 4: Trump Is Only Interested in the Big Fish

The GBP/USD currency pair traded lower on Tuesday, but the decline was weak, just like the volatility. Just look at the most recent stretch of the GBP/USD movement
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 4: Words, Words... Where Are the Actions?

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly throughout Tuesday, and the U.S. dollar even managed to gain slightly. However, we wouldn't pay much attention to a dollar rise
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-04 UTC+2

The U.S. Economy Will Suffer More Than Others from Tariffs

Donald Trump is jeopardizing his own economy. This was the conclusion reached by the G-20 countries at their recent summit. According to summit participants, the discussions focused on the trade
Chin Zhao 00:28 2025-06-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Failed Assault on the 1.14 Level: Bears Retreat but Do Not Surrender

Buyers of EUR/USD started the trading week vigorously, testing the resistance level at 1.1450 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and updating a six-week
Irina Manzenko 00:27 2025-06-04 UTC+2

Euro: Trouble Has Arrived – Open the Gates!

Trouble came from where it was least expected. Frustrated by its coalition partners' refusal to support its immigration control plans, the Freedom Party dismantled the Dutch government. The country will
Marek Petkovich 00:27 2025-06-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.