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28.04.2025 01:05 AM
British Pound. Weekly Preview
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The British pound is doing even better than the euro. The market keeps finding additional reasons to increase demand for the pound, even when the euro remains stagnant. Therefore, even hoping for a corrective wave is extremely difficult. The wave pattern is rather formal since all movements now depend solely on Donald Trump. Currently, we should expect the formation of the third wave of the new upward trend segment, but how will the instrument behave if Trump starts canceling tariffs?

In the new week, there will be few economic reports from the UK, while all the main events will again be in the US. No reports are scheduled for Britain, whereas the US will release data on the labor market and unemployment. However, I would like to remind you that the latest unemployment and payroll reports (among the most important reports) did not provoke any significant market reaction. Therefore, I wouldn't be confident we will see market movements based on economic data this coming Friday.

I believe everything on the market will continue to revolve around Trump. Some of my readers are probably already tired of hearing about the American president every day, but unfortunately, this is the only factor that matters right now. There is little practical use in discussing the state of the American or British economy or monetary policy if they do not influence market sentiment. Last week, demand for the US dollar did not increase, and therefore, I do not expect a "miraculous resurrection" of the American currency in the new week unless some corresponding information comes from Trump.

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Wave structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a new upward trend segment. Donald Trump's actions reversed the previous downward trend. Therefore, the wave structure will entirely depend on the position and actions of the US president for the foreseeable future. It is essential always to keep this in mind. Based solely on the wave structure, I expected constructing a three-wave correction within wave 2. However, wave 2 has already been completed, taking a single-wave form. The construction of wave 3 of the upward segment has begun, and its targets may extend to the 1.2500 area ("the 25th figure"). Achieving these targets will depend solely on Trump, and the internal structure of this wave is already becoming rather "awkward."

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Wave structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. Now, we are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that do not conform to any wave structure or technical analysis. The supposed wave 2 has been completed, as quotes have exceeded the peak of wave 1. Therefore, the construction of an upward wave 3 should be expected, with immediate targets at 1.3345 and 1.3541. Ideally, it would be good to see a corrective wave 2 within wave 3, but the dollar would need to rise for that to happen. And for that, someone would have to start buying it.

Main principles of my analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
  2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter it.
  3. Absolute certainty in the direction of movement does not exist and never will. Always remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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Fundamental analysis
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