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29.04.2025 11:09 AM
$200,000 for Bitcoin by Year-End
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While Bitcoin is still struggling to break through the $95,000 level — despite all the conditions being in place — Standard Chartered believes that in the second quarter, the leading cryptocurrency will reach a new all-time high of around $120,000, driven by strategic reallocations away from U.S. assets.

"Several indicators support our view: Bitcoin is heading into the next stage of growth," said Standard Chartered. "Our analysis suggests U.S. investors may be looking for non-U.S. assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whale accumulation continues to hit new records. Positive ETF flows have also returned. Since last week, all signs point to a shift of capital from gold into BTC."

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According to Standard Chartered, U.S. investors began buying Bitcoin after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day tariff delay on April 9 for all countries except China. Before the announcement, Bitcoin had been declining alongside tech stocks; since then, it has outperformed them. The decoupling of this correlation and increased U.S. buying activity suggest that American investors are actively seeking non-domestic assets. Asian investors have also started buying Bitcoin, further reinforcing this trend.

As previously noted, whale investors — those holding more than 1,000 BTC — continue accumulating, both during the tariff-driven dip and the subsequent rebound related to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve independence. Whales were also active during previous major rallies, including the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, Bitcoin ETF approvals, and Trump's election victory — indicating this could be another critical period for the next leg up in Bitcoin's price.

Standard Chartered expects that Bitcoin's sharp rise could continue into the summer, fueled by rising institutional interest, the upcoming 13F filings in mid-May for U.S. ETFs (which could reveal long-term buying by pension and sovereign wealth funds), and potential stablecoin legislation in the U.S. that could further legitimize the asset class and support structural price growth.

The primary role of Bitcoin in investor portfolios is hedging risks of the existing financial system. While gold provides similar hedging, Bitcoin is more efficient in this respect due to its decentralized nature.

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Technical Outlook: Bitcoin

Buyers are currently focused on regaining the $94,400 level, which would open a direct path to $95,600, followed closely by $97,100. The most distant target in the current bullish setup is the $99,000 level — a breakout above this level would mark the end of the bear market.

In the event of a decline, buyers are expected at $93,300. A return of BTC below this zone could quickly drag the price down to $91,600, with the furthest bearish target around $90,500.

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Technical Outlook: Ethereum

A clear hold above the $1,805 level opens the way to $1,833. The furthest bullish target is around $1,868 — a breakout beyond this level would also indicate the end of the bear market.

If Ethereum falls, buyers are expected at $1,779. A drop below this area could quickly bring ETH down to $1,750, with the lowest bearish target near $1,722.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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