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06.05.2025 12:50 AM
Fed Rate Cut Probability Is Near Zero
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This week marks the third Federal Reserve meeting of the year. At the first two meetings, monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, and there is virtually no chance of a rate cut or hike on May 7. I say "cut or hike" because Trump's trade policy could, at some point, force the FOMC even to tighten monetary policy. That may sound hard to believe now, but just a couple of months ago, few market participants expected such a rally from the U.S. dollar or such a disruption of the global trade balance from Trump.

Trump's policies could significantly raise inflation in the U.S. — inflation the Fed has been trying to tame for years. The Fed may raise interest rates if inflation returns to problematic levels. Let's recall that Powell and other Fed governors have frequently emphasized the dual mandate of the central bank: full employment and low inflation. As labor market and unemployment data showed on Friday, the situation did not worsen in April. Inflation also remains relatively low, so at the moment, the best decision is to pause. Powell also stated that the first effects of the new trade policy won't become visible before summer — or possibly even fall. Thus, it's reasonable to assume that the Fed won't change interest rates at least until then.

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As for market expectations, only 1.8% of economists foresee a 25 basis point rate cut on May 7. For the June meeting, the probability of a rate cut (according to the CME FedWatch tool) stands at 33.6%. By year-end, most economists expect three to four rounds of easing. This means that most of the market anticipates a notable deterioration in U.S. economic indicators during the summer, pushing the Fed to actively lower rates in the second half of the year. If the market barely reacts to rate cuts by the European Central Bank or Bank of England, I have little doubt that it will react to Fed easing. Based on the current wave count, further dollar depreciation remains the primary scenario — and the news backdrop supports this view.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave count will depend entirely on the position and actions of the U.S. president. That must be constantly kept in mind. According to wave theory alone, I had expected a three-wave correction pattern within Wave 2. However, Wave 2 has already completed as a single-wave correction. Wave 3 of the upward trend is now underway, with targets potentially reaching the 1.2500 area. Their attainment depends solely on Trump. At the moment, Wave 2 within Wave 3 appears close to completion. Therefore, I am considering long positions with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci extension level.

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Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave count for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may face many shocks and reversals that defy wave counts and any kind of technical analysis. The upward Wave 3 is unfolding, with nearby targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. It would be ideal to see a corrective Wave 2 within Wave 3 before the rally resumes. But for that to happen, the dollar must strengthen, requiring someone to buy it. Trump must stop imposing tariffs.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss protection.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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