empty
01.05.2025 09:13 AM
The Eurozone Continues to Deliver Unexpected Results

According to the latest data, the eurozone economy grew more than expected at the beginning of the year, although it has yet to fully feel the impact of the U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. So there was little reason to celebrate or buy the euro yesterday.

Gross domestic product in the first quarter increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months, which is double the growth seen in the previous period. Economists had estimated growth at 0.2%.

This image is no longer relevant

The result means that the 20-country bloc has expanded output for five consecutive quarters, and its two largest members, Germany and France, both returned to growth. However, looking ahead, business surveys indicate a slowdown, mainly due to trust-eroding uncertainty around U.S. intentions.

European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said last week that trade tensions are unlikely to lead to a recession for the currency bloc, but acknowledged that growth would be lower than previously expected. He and his colleagues are weighing further interest rate cuts following the seventh reduction in mid-April, as many fear Trump's tariffs could cause long-term damage to the eurozone economy. At the same time, many ECB policymakers still believe inflation will return to the 2% target this year.

The report noted that GDP in Germany and France grew by 0.2% and 0.1% in the first quarter, respectively, in line with economists' forecasts. Growth in Italy exceeded expectations, coming in at 0.3%.

Now all eyes are on Friday, when eurozone inflation data will be released. Annual price growth is expected at 2.1% compared to last year, slightly lower than the previous month. However, the core figure — which excludes volatile categories like food and energy — is expected to rise to 2.5%.

For Germany, a positive GDP reading is a plus — especially for new Chancellor Friedrich Merz after the IMF predicted that Europe's largest economy would stagnate this year. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel even warned of a possible third consecutive annual contraction due to the impact of Trump's trade policies. It's worth noting that Germany has been struggling for several years with weak global demand, the end of Russian energy imports, excessive regulation, and a shortage of skilled labor. However, there is hope for the longer term thanks to the new government's plans to spend hundreds of millions of euros on strengthening defense and infrastructure.

In France, disruptions caused by U.S. trade threats forced the government to lower its growth forecast for the year from 0.9% to 0.7%. Amid weakening economic conditions, it also introduced further spending cuts in an attempt to curb the budget deficit.

But as I mentioned above, the euro ignored the data on the currency market, as the outlook for further growth in the European economy remains quite murky.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to reclaim the 1.1320 level. Only then can they target a test of 1.1380. From there, a move toward 1.1440 may be possible, but reaching it without support from major market participants will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.1480 level. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around the 1.1265 level. If there is no activity there, it would be best to wait for a retest of the 1.1215 level or open long positions from 1.1185.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3330. Only then can they aim for 1.3370, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.3400 level. In case of a decline, bears will try to seize control at 1.3280. If successful, a breakout of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3250 low with a potential move toward 1.3205.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

La guerra entre Irán e Israel todavía no ejerce una influencia negativa significativa en los mercados (existe la posibilidad de una caída limitada en el precio del oro y de un aumento en el #USDX)

Tal como se esperaba, el regulador estadounidense dejó sin cambios todos los parámetros clave de la política monetaria, remitiéndose al mismo factor de incertidumbre respecto a las perspectivas futuras

Pati Gani 11:40 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 18 de junio. ¡La Casa Blanca celebra! Se firmó el primer acuerdo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el martes continuó negociándose de forma bastante contenida, pero permaneciendo cerca de sus valores máximos en tres años. Así es como se ha negociado

Paolo Greco 08:08 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 18 de junio. ¿Corregirá la Fed la situación para el dólar?

El par de divisas EUR/USD se movió a la baja durante el martes. Hemos dicho muchas veces que para nuevas y sucesivas caídas de la divisa estadounidense no se necesitan

Paolo Greco 08:08 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 16 de junio. Cómo Trump hunde al dólar.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante la nueva semana volverá a estar bajo el dominio de la geopolítica y la política. En principio, llevamos ya 4 meses diciendo lo mismo

Paolo Greco 07:11 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 16 de junio. El conflicto entre Israel e Irán no cambiará nada.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el viernes fluctuó de un lado a otro. Durante dos días seguidos el par EUR/USD se negoció con una volatilidad elevada, lo que tiene

Paolo Greco 07:11 2025-06-16 UTC+2

La Reserva Federal tiene razón, todavía es pronto para bajar las tasas (espero una caída del #SPX y un aumento del precio del oro)

Los recientes datos del índice de precios al consumidor en EE.UU. publicados el miércoles, a pesar de situarse por debajo del consenso, constatan la persistencia de las presiones inflacionarias

Pati Gani 12:11 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 11 de junio. ¿Qué impacto tendrá la inflación?

El par de divisas GBP/USD experimentó el martes una fuerte caída durante la primera mitad del día, pero recuperó su posición inicial durante la segunda mitad. Los operadores podrían haber

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El11 de junio. Ni siquiera las noticias sobre negociaciones ayudan al dólar.

El par EUR/USD continuó moviéndose de forma débil durante el martes, pero manteniendo una inclinación alcista. El trasfondo macroeconómico ha estado ausente durante dos días consecutivos, aunque han surgido algunos

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de junio. Un nuevo juicio para Trump.

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD no mostró ningún movimiento interesante el lunes. Sin embargo, al observar lo que está ocurriendo en Estados Unidos, nos resulta extremadamente difícil imaginar

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 10 de junio. Disturbios, protestas, revueltas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se movió con mucha lentitud durante el lunes. Y fue en vano, ya que el contexto noticioso se vuelve más interesante cada día. Esta

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-06-10 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.