empty
27.05.2025 05:58 PM
Markets Anxiously Await U.S. Senate Debate on Increased Government Spending (Possible Limited Decline in GBP/USD and Gold Prices)

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure. What's next, and what are its prospects?

The trade war initiated by Donald Trump has significantly damaged the reputation of the U.S. dollar, which has already been in poor shape for some time. The aggressive changes to the foundations of the national economy and the use of the dollar as a financial weapon against Russia have led to a collapse in trust. This was demonstrated during the most recent 20-year Treasury bond auction, in which the U.S. Treasury had to essentially buy itself. The market took note and responded with decreased demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Of course, the U.S. economy needs a weaker dollar to make domestically produced goods more competitive on global markets. But Trump does not want the dollar's decline in prestige and demand. Meanwhile, his sharp geopolitical maneuvers and tariff wars risk pushing the U.S. into recession—something that might be confirmed by this week's revised Q1 GDP data, which is expected to show negative growth for the first time since autumn 2022.

Another threat looming over the dollar is the anticipated sharp rise in U.S. national debt. The Senate is soon expected to debate a massive tax and budget package previously proposed by Trump, which would significantly increase the federal deficit. Forecasts suggest the bill could add approximately $3.8 trillion to the current national debt of $36.2 trillion over the next decade.

Ironically, the 47th president—once a vocal opponent of government overspending—is now effectively reverting to the same financial model that brought the U.S. to the brink of crisis and could trigger a full-scale financial meltdown.

In this environment, the dollar is clearly set to face challenges, and the Treasury's bond sales will likely become less appealing to foreign buyers who once eagerly absorbed them. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could potentially fall to levels last seen in 2021, around 90 points.

Dollar-denominated assets are also expected to lose appeal among global investors. Moreover, there are serious doubts that the U.S. government's effort to reindustrialize the economy—shifting it away from a post-industrial model—can succeed, especially in the short term. This means interest in the dollar may steadily decline over time.

Will other currencies such as the euro or the pound benefit relative to the dollar?

That seems unlikely. Europe is experiencing a profound crisis—both civilizational and economic. Yes, in the short term, militarization and increased defense spending could support the euro, particularly in its pair with the dollar. But meaningful growth is unlikely. Most likely, any rise will be local and limited: around 1.1500 for EUR/USD and around 1.3700 for GBP/USD. After that, a new wave of decline is expected once it becomes clear that money alone will not magically turn into tanks and aircraft. Without a robust defense industrial base, the eurozone cannot rapidly scale production—meaning we should not expect a repeat of the so-called "German economic miracle" of the WWII era.

What to Expect in the Markets Today

The dollar may see a local rebound against major currencies in the short term, followed by a renewed decline. Gold also has downside potential in the context of its short-term bearish trend. Cryptocurrencies will likely remain in a sideways consolidation, constrained by localized dollar strength.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast

GBP/USD

The pair is trading above the 1.3545 level. A technical drop below this level could trigger a correction toward 1.3440. The sell trigger could be a break below 1.3538.

GOLD

Gold remains in a short-term downtrend, trading below 3322.00. In the context of waning trade tensions between the U.S. and its major partners, prices could decline to 3205.75. The sell trigger may be a move below 3301.19.

Pati Gani,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD está apresentando uma recuperação modesta dos níveis abaixo de 1,3600, recuperando a maior parte das perdas do dia anterior, apoiado por uma recuperação do dólar americano. Além

Irina Yanina 14:18 2025-06-13 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par AUD/JPY permanece sob pressão vendedora pelo terceiro dia consecutivo, tendo atingido uma mínima de quase duas semanas em torno de 92,30 durante a sessão asiática desta sexta-feira. Após

Irina Yanina 14:10 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Donald Trump planeja reprimir protestos

Por vários dias consecutivos, protestos e distúrbios se espalharam por algumas das principais cidades dos Estados Unidos, desencadeados pela nova política de imigração de Donald Trump. Desta vez, o presidente

Chin Zhao 21:25 2025-06-12 UTC+2

O que prestar atenção em 12 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Um número significativo de relatórios macroeconômicos está previsto para esta quinta-feira, mas apenas alguns devem ter relevância real. Os destaques são os dados do PIB e da produção industrial

Paolo Greco 19:27 2025-06-12 UTC+2

O mercado vende fatos

Os mercados sobem com rumores e caem com fatos. Durante muito tempo, o S&P 500 subiu impulsionado pela confiança dos investidores em um acordo comercial entre

Marek Petkovich 18:13 2025-06-12 UTC+2

O Fed está certo — é muito cedo para reduzir as taxas (espero uma queda no #SPX e um aumento nos preços do ouro)

Os novos dados do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) dos EUA divulgados na quarta-feira, embora abaixo da previsão consensual, confirmaram a persistência da pressão inflacionária. Isso justifica plenamente

Pati Gani 17:52 2025-06-12 UTC+2

O dólar manterá o status quo?

Para fazer previsões precisas sobre o futuro, é necessário analisar o passado. A valorização de mais de 10% do EUR/USD desde o início do ano foi impulsionada por quatro fatores

Marek Petkovich 17:04 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trump ameaça novamente com tarifas – Mercados reagem

O presidente Donald Trump anunciou ontem que pretende enviar cartas aos parceiros comerciais nas próximas uma ou duas semanas, detalhando tarifas unilaterais. A medida antecede o prazo

Jakub Novak 15:50 2025-06-12 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

Atualmente, o preço do ouro permanece confinado a uma faixa semanal. Entre os principais fatores que sustentam a valorização do metal estão a decisão do tribunal federal de apelação

Irina Yanina 18:46 2025-06-11 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Neste momento, o iene japonês continua sendo negociado dentro de uma faixa de consolidação intradiária, aproximando-se da mínima de duas semanas em relação ao dólar americano registrada ontem. Os principais

Irina Yanina 18:46 2025-06-11 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.