EUR/USD continued to decline on Wednesday and consolidated immediately below two support levels: 1.1519 and 1.1473. Thus, the decline in the euro may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level, 76.4% at 1.1416. Consolidation above 1.1473 would allow for a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1519.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has turned bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative and have every chance of deteriorating in the near future. The market expects several stages of FOMC monetary policy tightening through the end of the year. These two factors have brought bearish traders back to the market.

The fundamental backdrop on Wednesday was focused solely on the FOMC meeting. From the outset, traders were confident that the regulator would decide to raise interest rates. However, virtually no one expected the decision to be unanimous, that Kevin Warsh would reaffirm his commitment to the price-stability mandate, that the policy tightening would not signal a prolonged pause, that Kevin Warsh would openly oppose Donald Trump, or that the Fed would overlook the weakness of the US labor market and the rise in government bond yields, which have already reached new record highs. Donald Trump responded to the FOMC decision literally within a few hours, but this time the tone of his statements was hesitant and uncertain. Trump wrote the following on his social media platform Truth Social: "The interest rate in America should be 1% or lower. We are the best borrowers in the world. Our country is experiencing an investment boom." The country may indeed be experiencing an investment boom, but the Fed has its own goals, objectives, and mandates. Kevin Warsh demonstrated yesterday evening that the FOMC would adhere to its own objectives rather than Donald Trump's objectives.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1526 and continued to decline toward the next Fibonacci level, 23.6% at 1.1449. A rebound from 1.1449 would allow for a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth toward 1.1526. Consolidation below 1.1449 would increase the probability of a further decline toward the next retracement level of 0.0% at 1.1325. No emerging divergences are observed in any of the indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,968 Long positions and opened 12,723 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overall advantage disappeared because of the war in Iran, while over the past 24 weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid market expectations that the conflict would end. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, compared with 241,000 Short positions. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.

Overall, over the long term, major market participants continue to show greater interest in the euro. Clearly, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, influence investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then resumes again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's direction on its own.

Economic Calendar for the US and the European Union:

• European Union – Consumer Price Index for August (final estimate) (09:00 UTC).
• US – Building permits (12:30 UTC).
• US – Housing starts (12:30 UTC).
• US – Change in initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).

The September 17 economic calendar contains four entries that few traders are likely to pay attention to. The economic backdrop is unlikely to have any significant influence on market sentiment on Thursday and may have little or no impact.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Buying the pair is possible today if it consolidates above 1.1473 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1519 and 1.1564. New short positions were possible following consolidation below 1.1519, with targets at 1.1473 and 1.1416. These trades can remain open today.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1325–1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.