empty
29.04.2025 12:54 AM
The Euro Looks for a Basis for Another Upward Surge

Business activity indices in the eurozone are declining amid heightened uncertainty. The composite index in April fell from 50.9 to 50.1, nearing contraction territory.

At the same time, Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose, as did the current conditions index, while only the expectations index slightly declined, reflecting uncertainty about the future.

This image is no longer relevant

As inflation in the eurozone continues to decrease, the European Central Bank faces the need to cut rates in June. However, according to Reuters, there is little enthusiasm for taking this step. The EU has yet to respond to the introduction of 20% tariffs, while business activity growth is slowing, and the pace of average wage growth has significantly declined.

Confidence in the dollar has been undermined by the rapid moves of U.S. President Trump, which, in turn, contributed to lower inflation in the eurozone against the backdrop of a strengthening euro. All these factors argue in favor of a rate cut, which could put pressure on the euro. ECB officials' comments are generally optimistic: for example, last week, Christine Lagarde stated that "the disinflation process is progressing so successfully that it is nearing completion." At the same time, Klaas Knot, President of the Dutch Central Bank, believes that although economic growth will slow in the short term, inflation will also become more subdued.

The news is mostly negative, but expecting a 50-basis-point cut in June appears insufficient. At the same time, a 25-basis-point cut is already priced in by the markets, making it unlikely to be a serious bearish factor for the euro. If the dollar were in good shape, the EUR/USD pair would likely have already found an opportunity to turn south, but for now, there is no apparent reason for such a reversal. Political factors, especially trade negotiations, may play a role, but both sides exercise caution and avoid sharp statements.

The net long position on the euro decreased by $0.5 billion to $9.3 billion over the reporting week. Positioning remains bullish, and the fair value once again indicates the possibility of developing bullish momentum.

This image is no longer relevant

The euro has lost momentum and is consolidating near the recent high. However, signs of a downward movement have diminished. A week ago, we assumed that EUR/USD would decline to the 1.1210 support level and potentially break lower, but the growing weakness of the dollar once again calls this scenario into question. A decline toward 1.1210 remains possible, but using it as an opportunity for new purchases seems more appropriate as the signs of resumed growth have strengthened. We expect an attempt to test the recent high at 1.1575.

At the same time, in the longer term, the euro's strength appears less convincing. Market sentiment suggests that the ECB could lower the deposit rate to 1.5% by the end of the year. In that case, even considering problems in the U.S. economy, the euro would struggle to compete against the dollar, which would offer a significantly higher yield — unless, of course, by that time, recession signs in the U.S. become more evident and force the Fed to cut rates more aggressively.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

La guerra entre Irán e Israel todavía no ejerce una influencia negativa significativa en los mercados (existe la posibilidad de una caída limitada en el precio del oro y de un aumento en el #USDX)

Tal como se esperaba, el regulador estadounidense dejó sin cambios todos los parámetros clave de la política monetaria, remitiéndose al mismo factor de incertidumbre respecto a las perspectivas futuras

Pati Gani 11:40 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 18 de junio. ¡La Casa Blanca celebra! Se firmó el primer acuerdo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el martes continuó negociándose de forma bastante contenida, pero permaneciendo cerca de sus valores máximos en tres años. Así es como se ha negociado

Paolo Greco 08:08 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 18 de junio. ¿Corregirá la Fed la situación para el dólar?

El par de divisas EUR/USD se movió a la baja durante el martes. Hemos dicho muchas veces que para nuevas y sucesivas caídas de la divisa estadounidense no se necesitan

Paolo Greco 08:08 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 16 de junio. Cómo Trump hunde al dólar.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante la nueva semana volverá a estar bajo el dominio de la geopolítica y la política. En principio, llevamos ya 4 meses diciendo lo mismo

Paolo Greco 07:11 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 16 de junio. El conflicto entre Israel e Irán no cambiará nada.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el viernes fluctuó de un lado a otro. Durante dos días seguidos el par EUR/USD se negoció con una volatilidad elevada, lo que tiene

Paolo Greco 07:11 2025-06-16 UTC+2

La Reserva Federal tiene razón, todavía es pronto para bajar las tasas (espero una caída del #SPX y un aumento del precio del oro)

Los recientes datos del índice de precios al consumidor en EE.UU. publicados el miércoles, a pesar de situarse por debajo del consenso, constatan la persistencia de las presiones inflacionarias

Pati Gani 12:11 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 11 de junio. ¿Qué impacto tendrá la inflación?

El par de divisas GBP/USD experimentó el martes una fuerte caída durante la primera mitad del día, pero recuperó su posición inicial durante la segunda mitad. Los operadores podrían haber

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El11 de junio. Ni siquiera las noticias sobre negociaciones ayudan al dólar.

El par EUR/USD continuó moviéndose de forma débil durante el martes, pero manteniendo una inclinación alcista. El trasfondo macroeconómico ha estado ausente durante dos días consecutivos, aunque han surgido algunos

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de junio. Un nuevo juicio para Trump.

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD no mostró ningún movimiento interesante el lunes. Sin embargo, al observar lo que está ocurriendo en Estados Unidos, nos resulta extremadamente difícil imaginar

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 10 de junio. Disturbios, protestas, revueltas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se movió con mucha lentitud durante el lunes. Y fue en vano, ya que el contexto noticioso se vuelve más interesante cada día. Esta

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-06-10 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.