Bitcoin is steadily approaching its all-time high and, according to several analysts, is poised to set a new record. Current levels near $105,000 are more than just numbers — they signal that the crypto asset is regaining strength, reigniting interest from retail traders and institutions. But behind this confident rally lies a web of nuances. Here's a breakdown of why the market believes in $115,000 — and what could go wrong.

Double Top or Double Power?

The scenario bulls fear most—the formation of a double top—has become a hot topic. This technical pattern usually signals a market reversal, but current on-chain metrics tell a different story.

According to several experts, the Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI) has remained stable for nearly a year, since August 2024, indicating no signs of a looming crash. Even during the February–March correction, when a major pullback was widely expected, BFI held steady in neutral territory.

This is crucial: on-chain data often serves as a "black box" of market sentiment. It's immune to hype and emotion — it's just raw stats: wallet addresses, volume, transactions, and liquidity.

If the data shows that investors aren't rushing to take profits, it means they're not expecting a reversal. This makes the double-top scenario look more like a mirage than reality.

Calculated Breakout: The Technical Case for $115,000

Some crypto traders point to a clear technical breakout on the four-hour chart. The breach of key resistance injected momentum into the market and set a new target of $115,000.

This isn't just a "round number" headline — it's a zone marked by previous clusters of orders and attempted reversals. Now, that area is less of a resistance and more of a target.

Markets react not to emotions but to zones with heavy liquidity. Right now, $115,000 has as much magnetism as the $100,000 region did a month ago. A break above this could trigger a cascade of short liquidations, fueling a short-term rally.

Stock Market Tailwinds: S&P 500 as Rocket Fuel

Bitcoin's upward momentum is still closely tied to the S&P 500. That's nothing new, but this correlation is gaining relevance again. As long as the S&P is printing new local highs, crypto feels like it has permission to climb.

This is especially notable given the current environment of monetary easing: investors are rotating back into risk assets, with Bitcoin often at the top of the list.

However, this correlation is a double-edged sword. Any turbulence in equities could derail the crypto rally. So while the S&P acts like a propeller, traders must stay alert to macroeconomic headlines.

ETFs Back on Top: $667M in One Day Isn't Just a Number

One of the strongest catalysts behind the recent surge has been U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs. On Monday, net inflows totaled $667.4 million — a two-week high. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone brought in $306 million, signaling the renewed interest of institutional capital.

Why does this matter? The ETF market is a thermometer of big money sentiment. Their participation means more than just chasing price—it reflects confidence in the asset's fundamentals: strategy, liquidity, and regulatory clarity.

Wisconsin, Are You In? Institutions Are Circling Again

Interestingly, even traditionally conservative entities like the Wisconsin State Pension Fund are reconsidering Bitcoin. After fully exiting in the first quarter due to low returns, market conditions have shifted, and the second quarter could see them re-entering.

This is critical to Bitcoin's institutional maturity. When retirement funds return, it's no longer just speculation — a vote of confidence in the market's stability.

What's Next: Short-Term Bets and Long-Term Potential

The near-term scenario is clear: if the technical breakout holds and the S&P remains calm, Bitcoin will likely test $115,000. In the short term, the market looks overheated, but not broken. And with BFI holding steady, there's no reason yet to expect capitulation.

In the long run, everything hinges on institutional interest and the global macro backdrop. If U.S. interest rates fall, equity markets extend their rally, and crypto arbitrage stays profitable, then $120,000+ by year-end is a realistic possibility.