विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 02.05.2025

02.05.2025 09:14 AM

What to Pay Attention to on May 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but some are quite significant. Naturally, the focus is on the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate, yet it's also important to note that all previous U.S. reports this week have disappointed.

Therefore, two conclusions follow:

Today's reports are also likely to disappoint.
The market may ignore even the NonFarm and unemployment data, just as it has ignored every other report this week.

The Consumer Price Index will be published in the Eurozone, but it carries virtually no market significance. First, it's only the second estimate for April. Second, inflation in the EU is near the target level, so it no longer has much influence on market sentiment.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is nothing of fundamental importance to discuss besides Trump's trade war, although that war appears to be on pause for now. The dollar's decline can continue for as long as Trump introduces new tariffs or raises existing ones. Any escalation could trigger a new leg down for the dollar. Any de-escalation would support the dollar.

The U.S. president has softened his tone toward China, but that has not yet de-escalated the situation. And knowing Trump, we wouldn't be surprised if he raises tariffs again soon.

Trump is well aware that further tariff hikes could cripple the U.S. economy, so in the near term, we probably won't see another escalation. At the same time, there are no trade deal talks with China, meaning the "145%–125%" tariff range remains in effect. We already saw on Wednesday how the U.S. economy is reacting to Trump's trade policy.

General Conclusions:

On the week's final trading day, both currency pairs may move in either direction. The euro may remain range-bound, so a rebound from the 1.1275 level could trigger a new upward wave. The British pound still shows much more willingness to rise, although it has declined for three days in a row.

With a 90% probability, the macroeconomic backdrop will not impact trader sentiment. However, if traders decide to react to today's data, the likelihood of a dollar sell-off is very high.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Note for Beginner Forex Traders: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management is key to long-term success in trading.

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